Parece que hay un runrún de desestabilización dentro del movimiento talibán. Ha sido llamativo que un pez gordo como el mulah Dadulah haya sido cazado muy al interior de la provincia de Helmand justo cuando se están llevando a cabo movimientos para llegar a un acuerdo político entre diferentes facciones afganas que incluiría elementos de los taliban. Por otra parte ha reaparecido con gran fuerza otro "clásico" del dream team de los señores de la guerra afgana. Ni más ni menos que Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, el salvaje que bombardeó a sangre y fuego Kabul en los años 90, cuando era enemigo tanto de los muyahidines del presidente Rabbani y el general Masud, como de los propios talibanes. Es más, cuando solo la presidenta paquistaní Benazhir Butto y su círculo político apostaban por los entonces desconocidos talibanes, el propio ISI apostaba por el tal Hekmatyar, que fue posteriormente derrotado en esta guerra multibanda.
Pues bien, ahora Hekmatyar resurge como comandante talibán, y naturalmente, en el bando "posibilista". Es interesante hacer notar que el sector más radical de los talibanes parece ser que anda a la caza y captura de posibles o supuestos "traidores" y "espías" que habrían vendido a diferentes comandantes talibanes recientemente caídos en operaciones antiinsurgentes en Afganistán. Por ejemplo, Mohammed Osmani fue abatido también en la misma zona antes que Dadullah. Es más, éste último al parecer ordenó la decapitación del supuesto traidor a manos de...un joven taliban de 12 años que al parecer en el vídeo de turno lo pasa realmente mal mientras lleva a cabo su trabajo, no por falta de determinación, sino por falta de fuerzas. Y ahora los talibanes han anunciado que han detenido a su vez al delator de Dadullah, que según dicen fue un paisano que lo alojó en su casa. Lo que tenga esto de verdad o de propaganda negra sería interesante de determinar. En todo caso, la sospecha de infiltración y de tener espías hace bastante pupa en las organizaciones clandestinas.
HAy un interesante análisis en Asiatimes, del cual saco unos párrafos.
...Of course, it was apparent to anyone that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was a divided house and that the United States' old European allies didn't share its apparent intention to turn Afghanistan into a client state under a NATO flag from where US power projection into the Persian Gulf and the Middle East and South Asia and Central Asia would become possible.
The amnesty move unleashed a wave of political activism in the subsequent few weeks, leading to the formation of the new United Front early last month. The platform of the United Front is interesting. It calls for a parliamentary form of government; it wants to deprive the president of the power to appoint provincial governors (who should be elected officials instead); it demands changes in the electoral laws from the present so-called non-transferable system to a proportional system, etc. It speaks of dialogue, reconciliation and power-sharing.
But evidently the United Front is bent on cornering Karzai in a typical Afghan way - incrementally but relentlessly, until his political nerves give way and his US support becomes redundant. It is harshly critical of the Karzai government's ineptitude and corruption, and it draws attention to the great suffering of the Afghan people.
In the sphere of foreign affairs, the United Front vaguely seeks "coordination" with the foreign forces present in Afghanistan, and leaves it at that for the present. Significantly, it calls for the official recognition of the international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan - known as the Durand Line.
At first glance, the United Front lineup resembles erstwhile Northern Alliance - Burhanuddin Rabbani, Mohammed Fahim, Yunous Qanooni, Abdullah, Ismail Khan, and Rashid Dostum. But curiously, the United Front also includes two top Khalqi leaders from the communist era - members of the politburo of the Afghan Communist Party, General Nur al-Haq Olumi and General Mohammad Gulabzoi.
They were close associates of former defense minister General Shahnawaz Tanai, another top Khalqi leader, who staged an abortive coup attempt in March 1990 against the government in Kabul with the help of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and eventually fled to Pakistan seeking asylum.
Khalqis, who are drawn from the Pashtun tribes, have had a strong nexus with the Taliban over the years. Tanai, who is based in Pakistan, used to provide the Taliban with a skilled cadre of military officers, who flew the Taliban's "air force", drove their tanks and manned their heavy artillery, absolving the need of Pakistani regulars except in very selective roles. In the recent years, he has been a visitor to Kabul.
Therefore, questions arise. Is a far-reaching restructuring of the Taliban going on? Mullah Dadullah's killing seems part of the process. It does seem that Hekmatyar and the mujahideen/Khalqi elements within the Taliban are slouching toward mainstream politics in Kabul. A sidelining of the extremist, "jihadist" elements by ISI could be under way.
Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf could be acting, finally. Hekmatyar has certainly positioned himself somewhere in the vicinity of the United Front. He is almost visible. Mullah Dadullah's killing no doubt strengthens him. Equally, Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani (who is second only to Taliban supreme Mullah Omar) too has a mujahideen pedigree. Also, Haqqani and Hekmatyar go back a long way.
En el aspecto más "militar" de la guerra contrainsurgente, las noticias son que los talibanes podrían estar planeando un incremento de sus operaciones en las ciudades, activando células y colaboradores dentro de los aparatos del débil estado afgano.
