Mision FAS: Afganistán

[gato]

Hablar en términos estratégicos siempre es relativo. La gran victoria estratégica de al Qaeda fue la guerra de Irak, probablemente sin haberlo planeado. Una guerra Pak vs India o una guerra civil intrapaquistaní no son probables. En el primer caso porque hay muchas instancias internacionales que no lo permitirían; en el segundo, el Ejército es un bloque monolítico. No hay posibilidades de guerra civil, pero si de disturbios graves, si bien cada vez que un gobierno civil intenta ponerle el cascabel al ISI, el gobierno sale escaldado. Y desde la muerte de Benazhir Bhutto, en ese país está claro que los aparatos del estado no se van a dejar domesticar. Y si, podrían intentar poner al gobierno entre la espada y la pared. Parecido al incidente de la guerra del Kyrgill, aunque hoy día Pakistán está mucho más presionado que antes.

[amtar]

[align=justify]Es cierto que hablar en términos estratégicos es relativo. Es cierto, desde mi punto de vista, que la guerra de Irak fue una "sorpresa" aprovechada por Al Qaeda. Podríamos comentar sí le ha salido bien o mal en según que temas, esa es otra historia.
Sinceramente, creo que tienes razón en que NO se producirá una guerra civil dentro de Paquistán o un enfrentamiento entre India-Paquistán, pero, no porque no lo estén intentando continuamente provocando disturbios, atentados, eliminación de Bhutto, atentados en la India,... tanto por los clanes, Al Qaeda o talibanes que por allí pululan.
La razón por la que NO creo que pueda ocurrir es, desde mi punto de vista claro, porque se están poniendo todos los medios desde fuera de Paquistán (lease ayudas a sus FAS, presiones al ISI para que no se "arrejunte" con talibanes y demás calaña, presiones para modernizar el país y sacarlo de la miseria,....), porque el nuevo gobierno está por la labor de que eso NO ocurra y, porque a NINGUNO de los países de la región (China, Irán, India y Afganistán) y Occidente (en especial todos los que tienen tropas en Afganistán) desean que se produzca una conflagración ni dentro ni fuera de Paquistán.
Pero que los malos van a intentarlo una y otra vez, lamentablemente, no te quepa la menor duda de que va a ser así.
saludos,[/align]

[gato]

No cabe duda que saber aprovechar las ventajas que ofrecen los errores diel enemigo es una manera de conseguir victorias, y en este caso vaya si aprovecharon la coyuntura. Es cierto, lo decía arriba; muchas potencias están interesadas en que se mantenga el status quo. Probablemente no haya ninguna potencia (ni China, ni Rusia, ni los EEUU) interesados en que se líe allí, aunque pienso que probablemente a los iraníes no les disgustase del todo. No en vano libran desde hace años una guerra secreta contra paquistán a favor de las minorías chiíes en este país.

[gato]

Revista taliban enhttp://www.theunjustmedia.com/Afghanistan/Maz/ ... Somood.htm

Intersante documento, acceder con las debidas precauciones. Mirar la página 8...y a ver esos carísimos traductores de farsi si se ganan el sueldo.

[Nemesis]

Buen link, gato. Sobre la situación en Badghis:

According to the Ministry of Women's Affairs in Afghanistan, almost 60 percent of girls are married before the age of 16. The average age is younger still in rural communities, closer to 11 or 12. These official figures, already high, do not reflect what happens during severe drought or times of economic crisis, when families can no longer afford to feed their children.

Even before the current drought, 60 percent of Afghan children under five suffered from chronic malnutrition and 54 percent of children had stunted growth. Abdul Samed Yacobi, 30, is nursing director at Qala-i-Naw hospital in Badghis province. Every day he sees children admitted who suffer from dehydration and malnutrition. "We can only expect more and more problems if the situation continues," he says. "It will only grow worse. The social situation, too. There will be more robberies, more kidnappings, and yes, more people will have to sell their children."

The main staple for most Afghans is wheat flour, used to make bread. In May 2007, the price of an eight-kilogram bag of wheat flour in Badghis province was 80 Afghani ($1.8o). One year later, it was 400 Afghani—a 500 percent increase.

As wheat prices sky-rocket and fodder disappears, families sell animals to subsidize their incomes. But the fiercest winter in 40 years claimed well over 100,000 head of livestock in the western provinces. And with families selling off entire herds, the price of sheep plummeted from $100 to $40 in one year.

A year ago, farmers in Badghis celebrated one of their best harvests in a long time. This year, with only one good rainfall, the winter wheat crops in the province failed. A full month before harvest, families collected dry, headless stalks from the field, hoping to sell what they could as animal fodder. In such a drought, no one speaks of planting for the summer season. They have no seed to plant and they don't expect any precipitation to ensure a crop.

"These days the high price of food is affecting us in a bad way," Sausan explains. "In the past, my husband's work as a labourer covered our expenses. But now, we are borrowing money just to buy food."

http://www.christianity.ca/NetCommunity ... x?pid=6315

[gato]

Pues si te gusto aquél link, este os va a encantar. Entrevista en el FORSVARSNETT del JEMAD noruego: sobre su toma de responsabilidad de GORMACH.

http://www.mil.no/fst/forsvarssjefen/st ... eID=170408

Translation: Norwegian » English

Caroline Lunde, 2008-12-11


Extended responsibility for the Norwegian forces in Afghanistan

The military chief of the Norwegian forces in Afghanistan expanded responsibilities for the neighboring province of Baghdis.

Of the military chief, General Sverre Diesen

Photo: Torgeir Haugaard
Defense: General Sverre Diesen. Photo: Torgeir Haugaard, FMS.

Defense Minister Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen oriented 1 Parliament in December that NATO will expand operation area for the Norwegian forces in Faryab province in northern Afghanistan. In line with Norwegian want, we will also have responsibility for the restless Ghowrmach district in the neighboring province of Badghis. In this connection has been argued that this means an increased risk for the Norwegian units, but it is a truth with powerful modifications.

The Norwegian forces, which has its base in the city of Meymaneh in Faryab, has already long operated in border areas between Faryab and Badghis. The same applies to the Afghan army, which regularly patrol the Ghowrmach. In that respect, they often come in trefninger with rebel forces in the district, which is a mix of Taliban, organized criminal gangs and others deter the stabilization and development in this part of Afghanistan. Under these the clashes, they have repeatedly requested the help of Norwegian forces on the other side of the border province of Faryab. In particular, our ability to guide planes to targets on the ground that when on several occasions has been crucial for the outcome. However, marks the border between the two provinces also border between the two of the region's NATO commands in Afghanistan. Faryab is part of the Regional Command North (RC North) with headquarters in Mazar-e-Sharif, while Badghis belongs RC West with headquarters in Herat in western Afghanistan. This means that the Norwegian units in the first place can not operate permanently in Ghowrmach, but is dependent on permission from RC North to cross the border teig in each case. There are normally only when an allied team is in trouble - so called in extremis support.

After that RC West does not have the opportunity to keep the forces permanently stationed in this border, the rebels daily great freedom of movement in Ghowrmach. District has therefore been a base area where the relative security can prepare deployment of veibomber, Bakhold and other attacks on the Norwegian forces in Faryab. After the action prefer the back to Ghowrmach, in the confidence that the Norwegian forces in the border can not pursue them there. For local people in Ghowrmach they have been able to scare obedience, precisely because there is no permanent presence of ISAF forces. This uses both to collecting the taxes and forced utskrive fighters in the villages, and the insurgents are not popular among the local population. The Norwegian team in Meymaneh believe that a more permanent presence in Ghowrmach will bring more of the local villages over on the government side, marginalizing the insurgents and impede their raid into Faryab. All these factors will help to stabilize and reduce the Ghowrmach that will evolve into a growing problem and an increasing security risk for our soldiers in Faryab.

In addition, at the Afghan team that routinely operate in Ghowrmach is the same as February of Norway will take over responsibility for training and mentoring. And then a Norwegian team coach following the Afghan battalion also under its recurring operations in Ghowrmach. Accordingly, we have also the reason a strong interest in having an opportunity for permanent presence in the district. If we continue to be dependent on the face of Faryab side of the border until it happens inside the Ghowrmach, we will be both more predictable and more vulnerable when we get our own rescue. The expansion of Norway's area of operations in Afghanistan are therefore justified by the need to take a seemingly greater risk in the short term - to prevent an even greater risk will develop in the long term.

Esperemos que los nórdicos nos defiendan bien....

[kilo009]

Chacón ha admitido que tenemos una avanzada en Bala Murghab:

CiU exigió ayer una explicación a Carme Chacón sobre la información publicada en EL PERIÓDICO que asegura que España ha desplegado soldados en el distrito afgano de Bala Murghab, donde apenas pueden moverse por el acoso de los talibanes. La ministra reconoció que el mando de la OTAN (ISAF) decidió abrir un puesto en la zona para mejorar la seguridad de las patrullas y justificó que España no haya informado porque es la ISAF la encargada de ofrecer los datos operativos.

En realidad no hay nada que admitir, la zona pertenece a Badghis, quizás lo que ha admitido de segundas es que nuestra avanzada se está encargando de "parar" a los talibán hacia su avance a Qala i Naw, junto a americanos e italianos (relevo con los españoles).

[sombra]

Italia también va a reforzar su contingente en Afganistán. Algo se mueve para esta primavera y las próximas elecciones.

Italy plans temporary increase in Afghan force
Agence France-Presse | Dec 12, 2008
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Rome: Italy will temporarily increase its number of troops in Afghanistan by 500 next year in the face of a "delicate operational situation" in western Herat province, the government said on Wednesday.

"The commitments we have made within NATO demand that our contingent in Afghanistan reach the figure of 2,800 for six months in 2009," Defence Minister Ignazio La Russa told the Senate defence and foreign affairs committees.

La Russa said the increase would respect the ceiling of 2,600 set by parliament for the deployment because it refers to an average over a 12-month period.

The defence minister was speaking the day after meeting with visiting US General David Petraeus, commander of US forces in the Middle East and Central Asia, who said he favoured a US troop surge in Afghanistan.

Petraeus said he had "already made recommendations" for an almost doubling of the US force based on requests from General David McKiernan, the top commander of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan.

NATO currently has some 50,000 troops in Afghanistan spread across the country with many of the Italians based in Herat which border Iran.

Y más ataques contra los depósitos logísticos OTAN en Paquistán

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/ ... _two_s.php

[Nemesis]

Vuelta a los orígenes. No hay guerra contraguerrilla que deje de implicar la lucha por el terreno inaccesible. Ejemplo; manual sobre empleo de animales y fuerzas de OEs.

http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2007/01 ... k_ani.html

[KS]

El Ministerio de Defensa cancela la visita del programa "Protagonistas" de Punto Radio a Afganistán.

Según ha dicho esta mañana Luis del Olmo en su programa "Protagonistas" la ministra de Defensa Carme Chacón le ha llamado personalmente para decirle que se suspende el programa especial que Punto Radio deseaba hacer desde la base de Herat, Afganistán, con motivo de las fiestas navideñas. Al parecer la presencia del programa de radio podría aumentar el riesgo de sufrir un ataque, porque los combatientes enemigos podrían utilizarlo para hacerse publicidad, o eso dice la ministra.

Esto es inaudito, menuda vergüenza, no se puede hacer ni un programa de radio desde el interior de la FOB. Muy fuerte.

Punto Radio ya había enviado material y/o personal a Afganistán para preparar el programa. En el año 2003 Protagonistas hizo el especial navideño desde Diwaniya, Iraq.

Un saludo,
KS