Análisis de Total Intelligence Solutions acerca del futuro del contingente alemán en Afganistán, ojo porque llaman la atención sobre cosas muy concretas... células chechenas y uzbekas con armamento moderno y potente, el contingente alemán como objetivo de ataques para provocar reacciones políticas en Berlín, y el envío de 5.000 soldados americanos al norte.
Tanto si los alemanes reaccionan asumiendo un rol activo como si tienen que hacerlo los americanos eso significara que tanto el RC(North) como el RC(South) seguirán empujando talibanes y grupos armados hacia Badghis...
Afghanistan: German Contingent in North to Face Upsurge in Taliban Attacks
Highlights
- Security situation in Kunduz and Baghlan deteriorating, upsurge in attacks likely
- Uzbek fighters involved in latest increase in attack against German contingent
- Training Afghan soldiers likely to remain Germany’s primary mission
On April 15, 2010, Afghan Taliban insurgents killed four German soldiers and injured several more in a sophisticated attack against their patrol when traveling from the northern city of Kunduz to Baghlan. The patrol came under attack by Afghan Taliban militants wielding sophisticated anti-tank grenades, in what appeared to be a carefully planned and executed ambush.
The latest casualties come less than two weeks after three German soldiers were killed near Kunduz, bringing the total number of German soldiers killed in Afghanistan to 43. The deaths of three German soldiers on April 2, 2010, resulted in an outcry from the German government, prompting the government to order new armored vehicles for German soldiers in order to deal with the worsening security situation in parts of northern Afghanistan. The April 15th attack is likely to cause a similar outcry and test the German government’s over and commitment toward the Afghan mission, one that is becoming increasingly unpopular among the German public.
Through its propaganda statements in recent years, the Afghan Taliban expressed its intentions of specifically targeting European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies in an effort to force early withdrawals. With some key politicians and majority of the German public opposing the war, an Afghan Taliban strategy of increasingly targeting German troops in northern Afghanistan is likely to stroke further anti-war sentiment, potentially altering Berlin’s strategy in the country.
Thus far, the German government, specifically Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, has expressed continued commitment toward the mission, even approving an additional 850 troops in February 2010. However, the deteriorating security situation in northern Afghanistan, coupled with rising anti-war sentiment in Germany, is likely to stymie United States (US) efforts to push Germany to increase its presence and go on the offensive against Afghan Taliban strongholds.
The Attack
At 2:30PM, Afghan Taliban militants, likely with the assistance of the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), attacked a German patrol in Baghlan, located approximately 62 miles south of a German base in Kunduz. The Germans were traveling together with Swedish and Belgian soldiers, part of a 150-strong Operational Mentor and Liaison Team (OMLT), responsible for training Afghan National Army soldiers. The team has specifically been mentoring local security forces in battle tactics during an ongoing operation code-named “Taohid II” against the Afghan Taliban, an operation launched in April but recently paused due to strong resistance from insurgents.
While it still remains unclear what exactly happened, the attack occurred near Dutch Bridge in the district of Baghlani-jadid. Sources on the Afghan side claim the OMLT contingent was attacked by a hidden roadside bomb. However, sources within the Bundeshwehr believe the patrol was shot at with sophisticated weaponry. Following the initial fatal attack, the battle reportedly lasted several hours, resulting in the deaths of three Afghans.
The Bundeshwehr’s strategy in Afghanistan involves training Afghan soldiers, a strategy that many assumed would remain relatively low risk. However, the April 15th attack, which was the most serious to date for the German armed forces in northern Afghanistan, shows just how dangerous it can be to train the Afghan army and operate in northern Afghanistan.
Determined Enemy
Once considered some of the less volatile sections of the country, Baghlan, Kunduz, and other areas in the north have become new trouble spots for the US and NATO. In recent years, the Afghan Taliban and other insurgent groups have widened their reach in the north, and have been bolstered by Chechen and Uzbek fighters, such as IMU.
Members of IMU, who are considered some of the most ruthless and determined fighters in the country, are actively providing arms and training to other militants in Afghanistan, including the Afghan Taliban. These highly trained professional killers are from neighboring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as Chechnya, and are becoming more involved in the insurgency in northern Afghanistan, causing immense problems for the German contingent operating in Kunduz and Baghlan.
IMU fighters are equipped with sophisticated weaponry, including short-barreled Kalashnikovs with modern plastic magazines – the type of assault rifles that are normally only used by special forces – and the TBG-7V thermobaric grenade, a device that ruptures the enemy’s lungs after detonation and has only been on the market for 10 years. While local Afghan Taliban cells often find it difficult to purchase and acquire such weapons, this type of high-tech weaponry is easily acquired by the IMU through international contacts and links to criminal networks abroad.
We note the German government has long been aware of the threat its soldiers are facing in northern Afghanistan, warning of a “new quality” to the threat and explicitly warning that Uzbek and Chechen extremists are joining local Afghan Taliban cells in order to intensify attacks against the German contingent. The April 2nd and April 15th attacks appear to be the latest IMU-sponsored attacks against German forces in the country. Continued support from IMU fighters to local Afghan Taliban cells is expected to enhance the operational capabilities of insurgents in northern Afghanistan and further deteriorate the already worsening security situation in the north.
Questioning the Strategy
According to their mandate, the Bundeshwehr is not responsible for the larger strategic objective of combating the Afghan Taliban and the IMU. However, with more instances of insurgents deliberating targeting the German contingent, Germany is likely to alter its strategic objectives and potentially change its overall mission in the country.
With General Stanly McChrystal planning to visit Germany soon, the US is expected to pressure Germany to contribute to a planned offensive against the Afghan Taliban later this year. However, with a skeptical public, the German government has few options in altering its mission in Afghanistan, especially in regards to expanding beyond training and participating in major offensives. Recently, the German government has shown nothing but a commitment to the mission, evident by statements by Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg’s decision to increase the contingent by 850 troops and to deploy additional armored vehicles and artillery following the April 2nd and April 15th attacks.
By this summer, the US is expected to deploy an additional 5,000 troops to northern Afghanistan with more to follow, part of a larger offensive to route the Afghan Taliban from the area. Germany is unlikely to actively participate the US-led offensive against Taliban strongholds in northern Afghanistan, given the level of opposition from the German public and its mission of only training Afghan soldiers.
The latest increase in troops and deployment of additional equipment is largely an effort to bolster its presence and protect the German contingent already operating in Afghanistan, rather than a signal that Germany is preparing to go on the offensive against the Afghan Taliban. That job will likely be saved for the US when it deploys multiple brigades in the summer months. Germany will likely continue bolstering its defense and better protecting its troops as it continues to train Afghan soldiers over the coming months.